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191001.363513.01J
19-NGI3-77
N/A
10/1/2019
2022-9-30 0:0:0
Active
$236,851.00
Enhanced Seasonal Landfalling Hurricane Outlook
Mercer
Andrew
MSU
Coastal Hazards CH
OAR
Hurricane predictions typically utilize statistical methods, but researchers are investigating the use of physical mechanisms in prediction models. Specifically, they are looking at mechanisms that control the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on tropical cyclone steering flow that drives landfall. To do so, they are using retrospective forecast data from the National Multi-Model Ensemble Phase-2 to quantify the seasonal predictability of the AWP and its modulation on the steering flow as well as associated atmospheric states conducive to tropical cyclone landfall. This involves analysis of climate model simulations (using the Community Earth System Model) for the AWP modulation up to 6 months before the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. They will also develop a beta advection model to quantify the propagation associated with the AWP modulations. A seasonal outlook for landfalling Atlantic hurricanes will be developed based on these modeled frameworks. This method could also influence the predictability of other seasonal phenomena besides tropical cyclones.
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